IDC expects global PC shipments to fall by -8.7% in 2015, with further declines taking place during 2016-- making for 5 years of declining PC shipments before growth resumes on 2017.
The analyst expected Q2 2015 to be a transition period for the PC market, with vendors preparing for H2 2015 Windows 10 system shipments-- but a combination of "stubbornly large" notebook inventories and currency devaluations only led to further shrinkage. Other issues hampering near future PC market growth include free Windows 10 upgrades, a short-term dearth of new models and channels reluctant to take stock.
As such, the analyst says mobile devices are no longer to blame for the demise of the PC-- combined PC, tablet and smartphone volume is expected to only see single-digit growth during the 2015-2019 period as saturation and "good enough computing" sentiments spread into tablets.
The commercial market is set to kickstart PC shipment growth in 2017 through the next refresh cycle and the end of free Windows 10 upgrades. In the meantime "small" consumer shipment declines are forecast to continue until 2019.
"Although the shortcomings of the PC business are obvious, a silver lining is that the industry has continued to refine the more mobile aspects of personal computers-- contributing to higher growth in convertible and ultraslim notebooks," IDC says. "The de-emphasis of touch on Windows 10 also paves the way for a more familiar experience and continuing unit growth on large-screen systems, particularly All-in-One PCs."