According to IDC, global shipments of personal computing devices (PCD)-- comprising traditional PCs and tablets-- are to decline by -3.3% in 2019, before the market shrinks to 372.6 million units in 2023 with a CAGR of -1.2%.
Detachables should grow "modestly" over the 5-year forecast period, with a CAGR of 4.6%. IDC says the product category should see a stronger impact in the commercial segment, as vendors increasingly focus on the enterprise and education markets for sales.
Education-centric Chrome-based devices are to find some traction as detachable Chrome tablets enter the scene.
On the other hand, slate tablets will continue their decline with a CAGR of -4.4%. The market is becoming increasingly concentrated around the holiday quarters, and competition from key players has lead to more brands either reducing their presence or exiting the market altogether.
The landscape also remains tough for traditional PCs, with declining desktop demand offset by emerging notebook opportunities. The result is a "slight" CAGR decline of -0.4% for the 2019-2023 period. The current CPU shortage might hamper some entry-level device volume, while gaming PCs might face some short-term challenges as the market works through older GPU inventory and the ecosystems warms up to the latest Nvidia offerings.
The commercial PC market is something of a bright note, with an increased notebook forecast and a "sizable" amount of last-minute Windows 10 migration projects (especially among SMBs with an aging installed base) taking place in 2019. Advances in the PC experience will drive most PCD conversation, further cementing notebooks as the dominant form factor making nearly 46% of the market by 2023.
"Notebooks/Mobile Workstations and Detachable Tablets are expected to take 53% of all PCD shipments by 2023, a clear majority," the analyst says. "Even as personal computing takes place on a myriad of devices and emerging venues like the cloud, IDC believes there remains a place for portable devices that can evolve to fit changing tastes while still retaining important but under-appreciated features like a physical keyboard."
